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After a slight rally the first half of the week, treasuries climbed Wednesday afternoon back towards its 2.84% resistance level. Mortgage rates aren't following the treasury lead and have held after their surprising drop back to 4.5%.
Little has happened economically to explain mortgages drop back to 4.5%. Since Friday there have been few economic reports and the only news of consequence has been the rumors that a budget deal is close and we may not have to experience another shutdown. Wednesday's bond auction was underwhelming and the Treasury Budget report is showing the deficit continuing to fall. Although the government is reporting a 22% drop in the deficit, the actual number is closer to 17%. The remainder of
The economic news continues to come in strong and rates continue to move up. Overall, the reports are better than the economy.
Since Wednesday's upward move, we've seen additional strong economic news and rates have continued to move upward. The good news is the rate of increase has slowed and apparently the 2.87% resistance level on the 10 year treasury is holding as bonds have twice failed to stay above the resistance level. Mortgage rates have shown remarkable restraint in their movements and the 30 year fixed is holding at 4.625%. Below are some details.
Thursday's GDP came in above expectations at 3.6% versus the 3.1% expected number. Normally that would be a much bigger concern but without the massive
Rates ticked up last Wednesday as investor's hedged for the long weekend. Monday and Tuesday those rates stayed up and today then climbed again as the economic news is good for the economy.
After the long weekend, the markets were greeted by several minor reports that didn't soothe any bearish feelings. Both the PMI and ISM manufacturing Indexes were above expectations and both September and October's Construction Spending were released. September's report was delayed because of the government shutdown. September was below expectations but it was pretty much ignored as the more current October numbers were above expectations. Tuesday was quiet on the report front but Wednesday was loaded with news.
What started out as a quiet first half of the week has suddenly turned nightmarish for interest rates, stemming from some comments from St Louis Fed President Bullard.
The market has been bearish for quite some time but the inconsistent pattern of the various economic reports has kept most investors in the market. With Fed Chairman Bernanke on his way out, no clear indication that the economy is improving significantly and nominee for the Chairmanship, Yellen stating that she doesn't support starting the tapering of mortgage purchases anytime soon, there has been little immediate pressure on the market to increase rates. Today, St Louis Fed President Bullard decided to make some headlines for himself and spoke of increasing the
Its been very quiet since Friday and rates are holding steady. With six reports out Thursday and Friday though, that could change.
With the bond market closed Monday and no reports of consequence out Tuesday or Wednesday, rates have stayed in a very small range. In summary, nothing is happening.
What To Expect?
Thursday and Friday have three major reports and three secondary reports coming out. With the numbers from the end of last week being pessimistic for rates, the market will take any "good for the economy" news to heart more so than weak economy, "good for rates" news. Thursday the markets will be looking for International Trade Balance numbers to stay somewhat consistent at $-39.1 billion. Numbers showing a smaller
A rough ending to the week for rates as the 10 year bond jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since mid September and mortgage rates moved back up to 4.375%.
Since Wednesday morning we had seen slow but steady improvement in rates as the 10 year bond dropped from Tuesday's close of 2.67% down to a low of 2.59% at Thursday's close and mortgage rates had drifted back to 4.25%. Thursday's GDP report for the third quarter was stronger than expected and above the top of the consensus range. That should be bad for rates but most all of the gain was from an increase in inventories not increased demand. Overall demand remains sluggish, import growth has decelerated and exports continued to grow but at a much slower pace than
Interest rates are up a slight bit since last Friday on continued stronger than expected manufacturing reports.
The 30 year mortgage rate has increased an eighth of a percent since last Friday. Most of the gain is on low volume and stronger than expected manufacturing data. Last week we had several stronger than expected manufacturing reports and Tuesday's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (yes, a report titled "non-manufacturing" is considered relevant to the manufacturing sector) came in above expectations and we saw a jump in the 10 year treasury but a bigger jump in mortgage rates. Wednesday we saw buyers step in and start pushing rates back down, again. The jump was small as we moved from a weak 4.25% to a stronger 4.375% on the
It's been a rough couple days for the bond market and interest rates. The 10 year long bond which appeared ready to headed down towards its 2.45% resistance level and maybe break through has reacted very negatively to the past few economic reports and is now at the highest levels since mid-October. That being said, the highest level since mid October is still 0.40% BELOW mid September rates.
The very optimistic minutes from the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday started the upward trend for interest rates. Yesterday's Jobless Claims Report came in slightly above expectations and 30,000 above the numbers we were seeing in mid-September. Continuing Jobless Claims were also up 31,000. Both of those should be good for rates
It's been a good week for rates until this afternoon but we were due for a slight hiccup.
Treasuries have been holding onto last week's gains and this morning started dropping further. That drop continued until the Fed's FOMC minutes were announced. This morning it appeared the 10 year treasury had finally dropped through the 2.50% resistance level for good which would trigger mortgage rates falling below the 4% level. At 2:00 PM EST the FOMC minutes were released and the 10 year treasury shot back above 2.52%. The minutes were considerably more positive about the economy than investors or the past two weeks of economic news would indicate.
With the exception of Industrial Production, throughout the first half of this week,
Markets have seen very little movement in either direction since Wednesday. The 10 year Treasury is content to float around 2.5%. Twice this week, it has tested the resistance level of 2.47% and bounced back.
Should it break through this barrier, rates could see another significant drop. How does 4% or less sound to you? Of course it sounds good and we have our fingers crossed for buyers, but we never know what next week will bring!
Even though all the reports this week were tainted from the government shutdown, there is evidence that the economy is losing steam and that consumer sentiment is down. These two factors will affect what policies the Federal Reserves choose to maintain or implement. However, sentiment may simply be down as a reaction